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October 2013 Economic Overview

October 2013 Economic Overview

The US economy is progressing nicely, except that politicians ignore the catastrophe a government shutdown will bring. You cannot have the world’s reserve currency held to ransom on ideological grounds without creating uncertainty in the minds of the rest of the world. The whole system will be disrupted. Gross domestic product rose 2.5 percent [...]

June 2012 Economic Overview

June 2012 Economic Overview

The euro crisis casts its wintry gloom. Yields on Spanish bonds are rising dangerously, and Italian ones are close behind. Portugal may need fresh support. The euro zone’s recession may be mercifully mild. But budget pressures are pushing economies into recession. The IMF is warning against over-zealous austerity. But the 17 countries making up [...]

October 2011 Economic Overview

October 2011 Economic Overview

TWO messages emerged from the weekend's IMF meetings: striking and deeply disconcerting. The high level of fear and anxiety among the participants and Euro-zone governments are still struggling to put in place an agreement reached in July. Europe is sliding toward recession. America is uncomfortably close behind. A renewed downturn across major [...]

January 2011 Economic Overview

January 2011 Economic Overview

Can the Euro survive? A break up would be even worse. Germany is fed up with paying for other country’s mess, and talk of a ‘Strong Euro Area’ is becoming commonplace.  Say Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and France set up the ‘strongs’ to reconsider their place in the union, maybe even create a two-tiered Euro? And, say Spain, [...]